What this is
Refugio Research monitors non-traded and semi-liquid alternative investment funds (private credit, private real estate, interval, and tender-offer structures) using only what the funds themselves file with the SEC. It surfaces what managers disclose but do not advertise: redemption pressure, distribution coverage, leverage behavior, fee-support expirations, personnel turnover, and the structural changes buried in proxies and program amendments.
Rules decide; text explains
Every finding is produced by a deterministic threshold rule over extracted data. The rules, their thresholds, and their severities are operator-owned and fixed in advance; no judgment is made at read time. The plain-language sentences are composed mechanically from each fired rule's own stored evidence. Nothing is generated that the underlying numbers do not say.
Every number cites its filing
Each fact carries the SEC accession number and document it came from, plus the text snippet it was read from. If a value cannot be extracted confidently (an unrecognized disclosure template, an ambiguous unit scale), it is not guessed: the filing is routed to the review queue instead. Over-surfacing beats silent suppression.
Severity tiers and recency
Urgent look today · Notify standard interruption · Digest periodic summary. Findings older than 365 days are labeled Historical and kept out of headline views; they remain stored as the backtest record. Where a severe rule and its milder sibling both fire for the same period, only the severe one is shown in summaries.
Redemptions & liquidity
Semi-liquid funds return capital only on a schedule and up to a cap; when demand exceeds the cap everyone is rationed. The Liquidity board unifies the three legal mechanisms — tender offers, interval-fund repurchase offers, and real-estate share-repurchase plans — into one requested / filled / cap-utilization view, so a proration (the fund rationing liquidity) is visible across every wrapper on the same terms. Every figure is the fund's own disclosure, cited.
Portfolio & position detail
For private-credit companies, every individual investment is read from the fund's tagged investment schedule: fair value against the fund's own cost basis. This surfaces which specific loans a manager has marked down, and quarter-over-quarter it flags markdowns, new positions, exits, and defaults — the position-level movement a wholesaler rarely volunteers. Consolidated-JV look-through rollups (a single "position" larger than any RIC-diversified holding could be) are excluded so totals and concentrations are honest. Registered funds' monthly portfolio reports feed the same position store. Credit health also tracks payment-in-kind income share, non-accruals, and the sponsor's own internal risk-rating migration where disclosed; for mortgage REITs, the CRE loan risk-rating distribution and foreclosure/REO events.
Auditability
Every displayed number links to an audit view: each stored observation with its filing citation and the verbatim snippet it was read from, and for computed figures (total return, leverage, coverage) the formula and constituent inputs. Nothing on the site is a number you cannot trace to a specific line in a specific SEC filing.
Coverage semantics, honestly per wrapper
Distribution coverage for credit vehicles (BDCs, interval funds) is net investment income over distributions. For REITs it is an FFO basis (net income plus real-estate depreciation minus gains on real-estate sales, from the fund's own tagged financial statements) because net investment income is not a real-estate earnings concept; the FFO proxy's limits are stated wherever it is shown. Leverage is presented as the share of the fund's own permitted leverage in use, computed per regime (asset-coverage statutes for registered funds and BDCs, charter ceilings for REITs).
Cadence
Filings lag their period end (quarterly reports typically 43–47 days, monthly portfolio reports 37–62, shareholder reports 50–70, and annual reports 71–90), so the system polls monthly for event-driven news (tender results, distribution changes, NAV moves, personnel) and treats the 15th of the third month after each quarter end as the confident date for the full quarterly picture. A recalibration of all thresholds against live-run evidence is scheduled two quarters after go-live: 6.9.6 recalibration due 2027-01-05 (two quarters after go-live 2026-07-05); 176 days remaining.
Not advice
Refugio Research reports what SEC filings say, on a fixed rulebook. It is monitoring infrastructure, not investment advice.